Will the US Dollar Continue Its Volatility in Iran's Market?

Saturday 1 Mar 2025

In recent weeks, Iran's currency market has witnessed significant fluctuations. After a continuous surge in the US dollar's exchange rate, a slight decline was observed, mainly due to speculations that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov carried a message from the United States during his visit to Tehran. This speculation led to a three-day drop in the USD to IRR exchange rate.

Will the US Dollar Continue Its Volatility in Iran's Market?

However, Iranian officials later denied this claim, emphasizing the impossibility of direct negotiations with the US. Following this announcement, the market sentiment shifted, and the dollar's value increased once again.

Experts believe that rising political risks in Iran’s financial environment have created uncertainty for currency traders. In such volatile conditions, traders closely follow geopolitical developments to adjust their strategies. After reports confirmed that direct US-Iran negotiations were off the table, traders rushed to buy dollars, increasing market demand and pushing the exchange rate higher.

On Thursday, the USD exchange rate in Iran's unofficial market peaked at 93,250 tomans before dropping to 92,500 tomans on Saturday. Analysts attribute this decline to market correction, a natural adjustment after a sharp rise or fall. As prices soared, fewer buyers were willing to purchase dollars at inflated rates, while more sellers entered the market to cash out.

Despite this short-term dip, some market players believe that negative foreign policy news could rekindle the dollar’s upward trend. Others argue that Iran’s central bank interventions played a key role in temporarily stabilizing the exchange rate.

Overall, the latest fluctuations highlight the sensitivity of Iran’s currency market to political and economic developments. With ongoing global tensions and domestic uncertainties, forecasting the future trajectory of the US dollar remains a challenge, urging traders to proceed with caution and strategic planning.

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